Infrastructure improvements and freight transport: a case study on Møre & Romsdal

Abstract

The Norwegian Public Road Administration has observed a relatively high growth in freight transport on the Halsa-Kanestraum ferry transit, which it believes is the result of recent infrastructure investments in the region. This case study employs a mixed method design with linear multiple regressions and semi-structured interviews to determine the extent to which freight transport can be attributed to the infrastructure investments, to estimate the future amount of freight transport on the transit, and how investments in the region have affected freight transporters. The linear multiple regression includes a wide range of data representing economic activity and infrastructure projects that may affect freight flows, and factor analysis is applied to combat multicollinearity among the variables. Despite established theoretical relations between economic activity, infrastructure investments, and freight transport, this case study failed to create coherent and realistic models for freight transport into Møre & Romsdal. The failure is apparent in the incidental nature of the statistical significance and relative effect sizes of infrastructure investments’ effects on freight transport, and the lack of statistical significance for theoretically and empirically established relations. Reasons for the failure in creating models based on variables are multicollinearity in the data set, potentially inadequate choice of variables and insufficiently disaggregated variables judging by the low number of significant variables, and the scale of analysis being too small. The three latter reasons also influence the models based on factors, and the accuracy of the models with factors is low compared to models with variables. The interviews were limited to two companies representing different sectors, and neither company has been or expect to be affected by the relevant infrastructure investments. Future studies based on the NPRA’s observation should primarily focus on interviews with a higher number of transporters, and quantitative analyses should be more advanced.